New research from economist and SCP Fellow Gillian Petit, PhD, JD, explains why GDP per capita is a poor measure of economic performance and economic well-being. Using changes in GDP per capita as evidence of either improving or deteriorating economic well-being is poor economics, poor public policy and poor reasoning.
Main messages
- The statistic “GDP per capita” has been used by some Canadian commentators as a summary measure to make sweeping claims about the state of the Canadian economy. However, this is misleading. Canada’s GDP per capita should not be used as if it were the sole indicator of economic well-being.
- Many conclude that low growth in GDP per capita over the past decade suggests that Canada’s economic growth has been low. But that is untrue. Canada’s economic growth has been on par or ahead of peer countries. Growth in GDP per capita, however, has been decreased by a high growth in temporary residents, like temporary foreign workers and international students. This is an arithmetic quirk of GDP per capita.
- This paper estimates what our GDP per capita growth would have been if Canada’s intake of temporary residents was more in line with recent historical norms. It also estimates the impact on GDP per capita growth in the coming years as a result simply of lowering our intake of temporary residents. Under both scenarios, Canada’s GDP per capita growth would have looked—and will look—very much like our peers.
Read the related article by Matthew Mendelsohn and Dan Skilleter.
Share with a friend
Related reading
Mark Carney’s Davos speech is a manifesto for the world’s middle powers
Mark Carney's recent speech at Davos matters because it treats this moment as a rupture, not a passing disruption. It’s in this rethink, write Matthew Mendelsohn and Jon Shell, that there is also relief: “From the fracture, we can build something better, stronger and more just,” Carney said. “This is the task of the middle powers.” The world's middle powers are not powerless, but we have been acting as if we are, living within the lie of mutual benefit with our outsized and increasingly erratic neighbour. Without the U.S., the world's middle-power democracies are rich, powerful and principled enough that we can unite to advance human well-being, prosperity and progress.
Four reasons our economy needs employee ownership now
Employee ownership offers a timely solution to some of Canada’s most pressing economic challenges, writes Deborah Aarts in Smith Business Insight. Evidence shows that when employees share ownership, businesses become more productive, innovative and resilient. Plus, beyond firm-level gains, employee ownership can help address the coming mass retirement of business owners, protect local economic sovereignty, boost national productivity and reduce wealth inequality. There is enough data about the brass-tacks benefits of employee ownership to sway even the most hardened skeptic.
Advice to the public service: Five ways to confront monsters and chaos
Canada's political and bureaucratic leaders are quickly trying to re-wire the federal government to confront a belligerent Unites States, but systems can’t deliver what they were not designed for. This is a time like no other in our history, writes Matthew Mendelsohn, and those making decisions have not been trained for this—because we haven’t experienced anything like this before. Drawing on his own time in Ottawa, he walks us through five priority “machinery of government” changes our public service needs to make to meet the threat of an increasingly authoritarian, imperialist America.