By Ana Pereira | The Toronto Star
When U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch a full-blown trade war with its closest ally, many Canadians felt as if their best friend had suddenly turned around and stabbed them in the back.
Trump’s string of accusations, along with increasingly hostile suggestions that the U.S. annex Canada as “the 51st state,” have led many to pledge boycotts of American products. The majority of Canadians now support calling on the government to reduce our reliance on the U.S. as a trading partner, according to a recent poll by the Angus Reid Institute of more than 1,800 adults.
Patriotism aside, there are solid economic reasons why Canada might want to consider reducing trade with America, according to economists. Trump’s threats have introduced a major source of uncertainty in a decades-old trade partnership that saw Canada give up some of its independence in exchange for economic prosperity and stability.
It’s a relationship that has benefitted both economies, with nearly 80 per cent of Canadian exports currently ending up south of the border, but it was built on trust, and trade experts say that trust is now gone.
Is achieving a greater degree of economic independence from the U.S. really possible? Can we really undo decades of integration without seeing our economy crumble?
The Star spoke with economists, academics and other experts, including SCP CEO Matthew Mendelsohn, about how the country should best navigate this new era of Trump’s isolationism, and found there are realistic steps we can take to reduce our dependence on the States.
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Blame the denominator, not the economy
Over the last couple of years, there have been countless articles warning of Canada’s poor economic performance. The mic drop has increasingly been Canada’s poor performance relative to peer countries on “GDP per capita,” with growth rankings used to draw a variety of sweeping, negative conclusions about Canada’s economy. SCP CEO Matthew Mendelsohn and Policy Director Dan Skilleter draw on economist and SCP Fellow Dr. Gillian Petit's new research to explain why GDP per capita is a deeply flawed measurement for evaluating rich countries - and is easily influenced by a variety of factors having little to do with economic performance or economic well-being.
Non-Permanent Residents and their impact on GDP per capita | Summary
New research by economist and SCP Fellow Gillian Petit estimates what Canada’s GDP per capita would have been over the past decade if Canada had kept our temporary resident numbers stable. She also estimates the expected impact on GDP per capita in the coming years due strictly to planned reductions in Canada's intake of non-permanent residents. Among key findings: Canada’s GDP per capita is misleading and should not be used as if it were the sole indicator of economic well-being. Plus, if we had maintained our temporary resident numbers at two percent of the population in recent years, Canada’s GDP per capita would look much more like our peer countries: a little bit ahead of countries like Germany, the United Kingdom and Australia and a little bit lower than countries like Belgium, Sweden and France.
Non-Permanent Residents and their impact on GDP per capita | Report
New research by economist and SCP Fellow Gillian Petit estimates what Canada’s GDP per capita would have been over the past decade if Canada had kept our temporary resident numbers stable. She also estimates the expected impact on GDP per capita in the coming years due strictly to planned reductions in Canada's intake of non-permanent residents. Among key findings: Canada’s GDP per capita is misleading and should not be used as if it were the sole indicator of economic well-being. Plus, if we had maintained our temporary resident numbers at two percent of the population in recent years, Canada’s GDP per capita would look much more like our peer countries: a little bit ahead of countries like Germany, the United Kingdom and Australia and a little bit lower than countries like Belgium, Sweden and France.