By Matthew Mendelsohn and Jon Shell | Part of our Special Series: Always Canada. Never 51.
The nature of the threat that Trump represents is becoming clearer. One aspect that requires urgent action is the risk that Canadians could lose even more control over our own economy and become even more vulnerable in the coming months. Although Canadians want to become less dependent on the U.S., there are forces at play that are pushing in the opposite direction.
Given a low Canadian dollar and likely lower interest rates, there is no doubt there will be many American investors looking to come and buy up more of our businesses and other assets. This could further rob Canadians of our economic sovereignty.
Canada has historically sought out Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The Canadian government regularly touts increased investment flows into Canada as a positive sign for our economy. But it is important to differentiate between investment that builds up our economy and investment that sells our assets, industrial capacity and intellectual property to foreign investors and leaves us weaker. The latter extracts wealth and weakens Canada over the long term.
Canada is also in the midst of the Silver Tsunami – a wave of retiring business owners looking to sell their businesses and secure their retirement. Canadian business owners of course should have retirement security, but many of these entrepreneurs would love to keep their businesses in local Canadian hands.
So, some kinds of FDI are bad, and some mergers and acquisitions have negative national security implications. Even before Trump took office, these combined trends demanded an urgent and serious response. Today, they are a high-level threat to our economic security. We need to change fast.
Many American investors and firms are looking to buy up Canadian assets at the moment. And the overt policy of the U.S. government is to use economic pressure to threaten Canadian sovereignty and put Canadian businesses in a position where they will need to sell. Many businesses will face liquidity issues and will see the value of their assets decline and American finance will sniff out these opportunities.
Despite the fact that Canadian governments, business leaders, workers and Canadians from across the country all say they want to be less economically vulnerable, there is a real chance that two years from now even more of the Canadian economy and our assets will be owned by American investors who don’t care at all about the health of our economy or communities.
Here are four ideas on how to keep ownership of Canadian assets in Canadian hands. Every detail has not been worked out, but these ideas are actionable and could prevent American finance from gobbling up more of the Canadian economy. We hope policymakers can build out these ideas and develop more of them – we are sure there are others!
1. Make it easier for new Canadian entrepreneurs to buy existing Canadian businesses from owners who want to retire.
We are facing a wave of business retirements and Canada needs more entrepreneurs. The Canadian government can do more to facilitate ‘entrepreneurship through acquisition’ – that is, helping new entrepreneurs buy existing businesses.
Canada needs more entrepreneurs who want to build, rebuild and grow businesses that contribute value to their communities. The last couple of decades have seen a change in the kind of entrepreneurship that is prioritized, with many entrepreneurs focusing on ‘exit’ – that is, building a business with the goal of selling it to a larger financial player. Today, we need to help young entrepreneurs buy businesses that they want to run for the long haul.
The federal government should significantly de-risk purchases of existing businesses by new Canadian independent entrepreneurs. This could be done through amendments to the Small Business Financing Program, directing the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) to prioritize this type of transaction or the launch of a significant new loan guarantee program aimed specifically at entrepreneurship through acquisition.
2. Invest patient capital into Canadian manufacturers and other vulnerable sectors through a new, independently managed sovereign buy-out fund.
Some manufacturers are about to feel pain from U.S. tariffs. Some will be at risk of closing or will feel pressure to relocate or sell to foreign investors. In order to diversify their exports away from the U.S., they will need to re-tool and make new investments. Some won’t be able to do that. We need a policy response to ensure they remain liquid, sovereign and have the capital to withstand the current crisis and re-tool for domestic needs and global markets.
The federal government should work with our large pension funds and invest together in a new fund that would buy or invest in existing manufacturing firms that run into trouble. The federal government should guarantee a benchmark rate of return for the pension funds, so that Canadian pension dollars are protected. The fund should be run independently by those with experience in manufacturing, finance and private equity with the goal of building an advanced and resilient manufacturing sector necessary for a more prosperous, independent Canada. Such a project will require permanent, patient capital—capital managed for long-term value creation instead of short-term gains.
3. Make it easier for business owners to sell to their employees.
Employee Ownership Trusts (EOTs) were created in Canada last year as a vehicle for business owners to more easily sell their businesses to their employees. This has the potential to unleash a wave of business transitions and thousands of new worker-owners, as it has in the U.K. But obstacles remain and workers often compete with those seeking to buy up Canadian assets.
The government should clarify the rules around EOTs, some of which are creating uncertainty amongst lawyers, accountants, advisors and business owners. Many entrepreneurs want to sell to their employees, but uncertainty around who is eligible and whether tax exemptions will expire are inhibiting transactions. There are easy fixes for these snags, and we must not delay: the federal government should clarify the rules as soon as possible so that businesses can be sold to their employees. Canadian pension funds should also invest in a fund to facilitate employee-ownership transitions, with the federal government guaranteeing a benchmark rate of return.
4. Do not allow American purchases of Canadian businesses.
Foreign purchases of Canadian firms are reviewed under the Investment Canada Act under certain circumstances and are sometimes subjected to a national security screen. Small acquisitions are not reviewed, which is appropriate in normal times, but now represents a threat to Canadian economic sovereignty.
The current legislation allows large foreign investors to serially acquire smaller firms and, over time, consolidate industries in foreign hands. The risk of this is now even greater, as many Canadian business owners might be anxious to sell and foreign investors currently have exchange-rate advantages.
Changes to the Investment Canada Act were passed in 2024, but we need immediate new targeted changes to respond to the current environment. Those should include an ability to review smaller transactions and an emergency power that can be invoked by the government to put on hold all foreign acquisitions for a period of time. In conjunction with the earlier options, it would be possible for Canadian funds to step in and acquire businesses instead, with the federal government offering some kinds of guarantees.
These are some ideas that should be investigated. They all have a reasonable chance of enhancing economic resilience, creating wealth-building opportunities for Canadian workers and entrepreneurs and increasing Canadian economic sovereignty. We are sure there are others. Let’s get to work on them yesterday.
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